Uncertainty sets the tone of business planning these days and past precedents, 'rules of thumb' and trading history provide little comfort when assessing future prospects. After 18 years of constant growth in GDP, planning is no longer about extrapolating past performance and adjusting for growth. It is now about constantly testing the temperature of the water, formulating scenarios, assessing risk and assigning probabilities. So how does one plan for recovery and improve forecast accuracy in such a volatile environment?