Does programming knowledge have a half-life?

Posted by Gary Rowe on Programmers See other posts from Programmers or by Gary Rowe
Published on 2011-03-20T16:27:54Z Indexed on 2011/03/20 19:28 UTC
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learning

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idioms

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half-life

In answering this question, I asserted that programming knowledge has a half-life of about 18 months.

In physics, we have radioactive decay which is the process by which a radioactive element transforms into something less energetic. The half-life is the measure of how long it takes for this process to result in only half of the material to remain.

A parallel concept might be that over time our programming knowledge ceases to be the current idiom and eventually becomes irrelevant. Noting that a half-life is asymptotic (so some knowledge will always be relevant), what are your thoughts on this?

Is 18 months a good estimate? Is it even the case? Does it apply to design patterns, but over a longer period? What are the inherent advantages/disadvantages of this half-life?

Update

Just found this question which covers the material fairly well: "Half of everything you know will be obsolete in 18-24 months" = ( True, or False? )

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