A disconcertingly high number of new technologies/paradigms are overhyped (as is evident from replies to this question). Combine this with the fact that being early adopter is inherently risky. This makes evaluation of technology before adoption critical. So how exactly early adopters among you go about it.

I can think of following general criteria.

1. For early adoption technology must address previously unaddressed issue and/or
2. For acceptance beyond early adoption technology should address performance
3. One indicator that something is not right is when there is too much of jargon for technology which is either irrelevant or there is no evidence to back it up

What is your opinion.

Update: 4. BTW, the biggest reason to fear technology is when it is imposed by the tech-unaware management based entirely on number of buzzwords.