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  • Oracle Data Mining a Star Schema: Telco Churn Case Study

    - by charlie.berger
    There is a complete and detailed Telco Churn case study "How to" Blog Series just posted by Ari Mozes, ODM Dev. Manager.  In it, Ari provides detailed guidance in how to leverage various strengths of Oracle Data Mining including the ability to: mine Star Schemas and join tables and views together to obtain a complete 360 degree view of a customer combine transactional data e.g. call record detail (CDR) data, etc. define complex data transformation, model build and model deploy analytical methodologies inside the Database  His blog is posted in a multi-part series.  Below are some opening excerpts for the first 3 blog entries.  This is an excellent resource for any novice to skilled data miner who wants to gain competitive advantage by mining their data inside the Oracle Database.  Many thanks Ari! Mining a Star Schema: Telco Churn Case Study (1 of 3) One of the strengths of Oracle Data Mining is the ability to mine star schemas with minimal effort.  Star schemas are commonly used in relational databases, and they often contain rich data with interesting patterns.  While dimension tables may contain interesting demographics, fact tables will often contain user behavior, such as phone usage or purchase patterns.  Both of these aspects - demographics and usage patterns - can provide insight into behavior.Churn is a critical problem in the telecommunications industry, and companies go to great lengths to reduce the churn of their customer base.  One case study1 describes a telecommunications scenario involving understanding, and identification of, churn, where the underlying data is present in a star schema.  That case study is a good example for demonstrating just how natural it is for Oracle Data Mining to analyze a star schema, so it will be used as the basis for this series of posts...... Mining a Star Schema: Telco Churn Case Study (2 of 3) This post will follow the transformation steps as described in the case study, but will use Oracle SQL as the means for preparing data.  Please see the previous post for background material, including links to the case study and to scripts that can be used to replicate the stages in these posts.1) Handling missing values for call data recordsThe CDR_T table records the number of phone minutes used by a customer per month and per call type (tariff).  For example, the table may contain one record corresponding to the number of peak (call type) minutes in January for a specific customer, and another record associated with international calls in March for the same customer.  This table is likely to be fairly dense (most type-month combinations for a given customer will be present) due to the coarse level of aggregation, but there may be some missing values.  Missing entries may occur for a number of reasons: the customer made no calls of a particular type in a particular month, the customer switched providers during the timeframe, or perhaps there is a data entry problem.  In the first situation, the correct interpretation of a missing entry would be to assume that the number of minutes for the type-month combination is zero.  In the other situations, it is not appropriate to assume zero, but rather derive some representative value to replace the missing entries.  The referenced case study takes the latter approach.  The data is segmented by customer and call type, and within a given customer-call type combination, an average number of minutes is computed and used as a replacement value.In SQL, we need to generate additional rows for the missing entries and populate those rows with appropriate values.  To generate the missing rows, Oracle's partition outer join feature is a perfect fit.  select cust_id, cdre.tariff, cdre.month, minsfrom cdr_t cdr partition by (cust_id) right outer join     (select distinct tariff, month from cdr_t) cdre     on (cdr.month = cdre.month and cdr.tariff = cdre.tariff);   ....... Mining a Star Schema: Telco Churn Case Study (3 of 3) Now that the "difficult" work is complete - preparing the data - we can move to building a predictive model to help identify and understand churn.The case study suggests that separate models be built for different customer segments (high, medium, low, and very low value customer groups).  To reduce the data to a single segment, a filter can be applied: create or replace view churn_data_high asselect * from churn_prep where value_band = 'HIGH'; It is simple to take a quick look at the predictive aspects of the data on a univariate basis.  While this does not capture the more complex multi-variate effects as would occur with the full-blown data mining algorithms, it can give a quick feel as to the predictive aspects of the data as well as validate the data preparation steps.  Oracle Data Mining includes a predictive analytics package which enables quick analysis. begin  dbms_predictive_analytics.explain(   'churn_data_high','churn_m6','expl_churn_tab'); end; /select * from expl_churn_tab where rank <= 5 order by rank; ATTRIBUTE_NAME       ATTRIBUTE_SUBNAME EXPLANATORY_VALUE RANK-------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------LOS_BAND                                      .069167052          1MINS_PER_TARIFF_MON  PEAK-5                   .034881648          2REV_PER_MON          REV-5                    .034527798          3DROPPED_CALLS                                 .028110322          4MINS_PER_TARIFF_MON  PEAK-4                   .024698149          5From the above results, it is clear that some predictors do contain information to help identify churn (explanatory value > 0).  The strongest uni-variate predictor of churn appears to be the customer's (binned) length of service.  The second strongest churn indicator appears to be the number of peak minutes used in the most recent month.  The subname column contains the interior piece of the DM_NESTED_NUMERICALS column described in the previous post.  By using the object relational approach, many related predictors are included within a single top-level column. .....   NOTE:  These are just EXCERPTS.  Click here to start reading the Oracle Data Mining a Star Schema: Telco Churn Case Study from the beginning.    

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  • Cutting Subscriber Churn with Media Intelligence

    - by Oracle M&E
    There's lots of talk in media and entertainment companies about using "big data".  But it's often hard to see through the hype and understand how big data brings benefits in the real world.  How about being able to predict with 92% accuracy which subscribers intend to cancel their subscription - and put in place a renewal strategy to dramatically reduce that churn?  That's what Belgian media company De Persgroep has achieved with Oracle's Media Intelligence solution.  "One of the areas in which we're able to achieve beautiful results using big data is the churn prediction," De Persgroep's CIO Luc Verbist explains in a new Oracle video.  "Based on all the data that we collect on websites and all your behavior, payment behavior and so on, we're able to make a prediction model, which, with an accuracy of 92 percent, is able to predict that you probably won't renew your newspaper, anymore. So our approach to renewal is completely different to the people in that segment than towards the other people. And this has brought us a lot of value and a lot of customers who didn't stop their newspaper where else they would have done so." De Persgroep is using Oracle's Big Data Appliance, along with software from Oracle partner NGDATA to build up a detailed "DNA profile" of each individual customer, based on every interaction, in real time.  This means that any change in behavior - a drop in content consumption, a late subscription payment, a negative social media comment - is captured.  Applying advanced data modeling techniques automatically converts those raw interactions into data with real business meaning - like that customer's risk of churning. The very same data profile - comprising hundreds if individual dimensions - can simultaneously drive targeted marketing campaigns - informing audience about new content that's most relevant and encouraging them to subscribe.  It can power content recommendations and personalization right in the content sites and apps. And it can link directly into digital advertising networks via platforms like Oracle's BlueKai data management platform (DMP), to drive increased advertising CPMs. Using Oracle's Media Intelligence solution enables this across De Persgroep's business - comprising eight newspapers and 25 magazines published in Belgium and The Netherlands, and digital properties including websites with 6m daily unique visitors, along with TV and radio stations. "The company strategy is in fact a customer-centric strategy, so we want to get a 360-view about our customers, about our prospects. And the big data project helped us to achieve that goal," says Verbist. Using Oracle's Big Data Appliance to underpin the solution created huge savings.   "The selection of the Big Data Appliance was quite easy.  It was very quick to install, very easy to install, as well. And it was far cheaper than building our own Hadoop cluster. So it was in fact a non-brainer," Verbist explains. Applying Media Intelligence approach has yielded incredible results for De Persgroep, including: Improved products - with a new understanding of how readers are consuming print and digital content across the day Improved customer segmentation - driving a 6X improvement in customer prospecting and acquisition when contacting a specific segment Having the project up and running in three months And that has led to competitive benefits for De Persgroep, as Luc Verbist explains: "one of the results we saw since we started using big data is that we're able to increase the gap between we as the market leader, and the second [by] more than 20 percent."

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  • New Communications Industry Data Model with "Factory Installed" Predictive Analytics using Oracle Da

    - by charlie.berger
    Oracle Introduces Oracle Communications Data Model to Provide Actionable Insight for Communications Service Providers   We've integrated pre-installed analytical methodologies with the new Oracle Communications Data Model to deliver automated, simple, yet powerful predictive analytics solutions for customers.  Churn, sentiment analysis, identifying customer segments - all things that can be anticipated and hence, preconcieved and implemented inside an applications.  Read on for more information! TM Forum Management World, Nice, France - 18 May 2010 News Facts To help communications service providers (CSPs) manage and analyze rapidly growing data volumes cost effectively, Oracle today introduced the Oracle Communications Data Model. With the Oracle Communications Data Model, CSPs can achieve rapid time to value by quickly implementing a standards-based enterprise data warehouse that features communications industry-specific reporting, analytics and data mining. The combination of the Oracle Communications Data Model, Oracle Exadata and the Oracle Business Intelligence (BI) Foundation represents the most comprehensive data warehouse and BI solution for the communications industry. Also announced today, Hong Kong Broadband Network enhanced their data warehouse system, going live on Oracle Communications Data Model in three months. The leading provider increased its subscriber base by 37 percent in six months and reduced customer churn to less than one percent. Product Details Oracle Communications Data Model provides industry-specific schema and embedded analytics that address key areas such as customer management, marketing segmentation, product development and network health. CSPs can efficiently capture and monitor critical data and transform it into actionable information to support development and delivery of next-generation services using: More than 1,300 industry-specific measurements and key performance indicators (KPIs) such as network reliability statistics, provisioning metrics and customer churn propensity. Embedded OLAP cubes for extremely fast dimensional analysis of business information. Embedded data mining models for sophisticated trending and predictive analysis. Support for multiple lines of business, such as cable, mobile, wireline and Internet, which can be easily extended to support future requirements. With Oracle Communications Data Model, CSPs can jump start the implementation of a communications data warehouse in line with communications-industry standards including the TM Forum Information Framework (SID), formerly known as the Shared Information Model. Oracle Communications Data Model is optimized for any Oracle Database 11g platform, including Oracle Exadata, which can improve call data record query performance by 10x or more. Supporting Quotes "Oracle Communications Data Model covers a wide range of business areas that are relevant to modern communications service providers and is a comprehensive solution - with its data model and pre-packaged templates including BI dashboards, KPIs, OLAP cubes and mining models. It helps us save a great deal of time in building and implementing a customized data warehouse and enables us to leverage the advanced analytics quickly and more effectively," said Yasuki Hayashi, executive manager, NTT Comware Corporation. "Data volumes will only continue to grow as communications service providers expand next-generation networks, deploy new services and adopt new business models. They will increasingly need efficient, reliable data warehouses to capture key insights on data such as customer value, network value and churn probability. With the Oracle Communications Data Model, Oracle has demonstrated its commitment to meeting these needs by delivering data warehouse tools designed to fill communications industry-specific needs," said Elisabeth Rainge, program director, Network Software, IDC. "The TM Forum Conformance Mark provides reassurance to customers seeking standards-based, and therefore, cost-effective and flexible solutions. TM Forum is extremely pleased to work with Oracle to certify its Oracle Communications Data Model solution. Upon successful completion, this certification will represent the broadest and most complete implementation of the TM Forum Information Framework to date, with more than 130 aggregate business entities," said Keith Willetts, chairman and chief executive officer, TM Forum. Supporting Resources Oracle Communications Oracle Communications Data Model Data Sheet Oracle Communications Data Model Podcast Oracle Data Warehousing Oracle Communications on YouTube Oracle Communications on Delicious Oracle Communications on Facebook Oracle Communications on Twitter Oracle Communications on LinkedIn Oracle Database on Twitter The Data Warehouse Insider Blog

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  • CRM Evolution 2014: Mediocrity is the New Horrible in Customer Service

    - by Tuula Fai
    "Mediocrity is the new horrible in customer service," Blair McHaney, Gold's Gym Almost everyone knows that customers' expectations have risen. But, after listening to two days of presentations at CRM Evolution, I think it’s more accurate to say that customers' expectations have skyrocketed. Fortunately, most companies have gotten the message and are taking their customer service to a higher level. For those who've been hesitant to 'boldly go where their customer service organization has not gone before,' take heart. I’ve got some statistics that will encourage you to take those first few steps. Why should I change? By engaging customers online, ancestry.com achieved a 99.5% customer satisfaction score (CSAT) while improving retention and saving millions on greater efficiency, including a 38%-50% drop in inbound calls and emails.1 By empowering employees to delight customers, Gold’s Gym achieved a 77.5% Net Promoter Score (NPS) and 22% customer churn rate. No small feat when you consider the industry averages are 40% NPS and 45% churn.2 By adapting quickly to social media, brands like Verizon have benefited from social community members spending 2.5x-10x more than average customers.3 ‘The fierce urgency of now’ is upon us in customer service. You can take your customer service to a higher level! To find out more, click here CRM Evolution Customer Service Experience Footnotes: 1. Arvindh Balakrishnan, Is Your Customer Service Modern?2. Blair McHaney, Wire Your Organization with Customer Feedback3. Becky Carroll, The Power of Communities for Improving the Service Experience and Building Advocates

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  • WikiPlex v1.3 Released

    - by mhawley
    [In addition to blogging, I am also using Twitter. Follow me: @matthawley] It's been a many months since the last release of WikiPlex, but its only because there hasn't been a lot of churn recently.  I've very happy where WikiPlex is at, and it continues to be a very… (read more)

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  • How much is a subscriber worth?

    - by Tom Lewin
    This year at Red Gate, we’ve started providing a way to back up SQL Azure databases and Azure storage. We decided to sell this as a service, instead of a product, which means customers only pay for what they use. Unfortunately for us, it makes figuring out revenue much trickier. With a product like SQL Compare, a customer pays for it, and it’s theirs for good. Sure, we offer support and upgrades, but, fundamentally, the sale is a simple, upfront transaction: we’ve made this product, you need this product, we swap product for money and everyone is happy. With software as a service, it isn’t that easy. The money and product don’t change hands up front. Instead, we provide a service in exchange for a recurring fee. We know someone buying SQL Compare will pay us $X, but we don’t know how long service customers will stay with us, or how much they will spend. How do we find this out? We use lifetime value analysis. What is lifetime value? Lifetime value, or LTV, is how much a customer is worth to the business. For Entrepreneurs has a brilliant write up that we followed to conduct our analysis. Basically, it all boils down to this equation: LTV = ARPU x ALC To make it a bit less of an alphabet-soup and a bit more understandable, we can write it out in full: The lifetime value of a customer equals the average revenue per customer per month, times the average time a customer spends with the service Simple, right? A customer is worth the average spend times the average stay. If customers pay on average $50/month, and stay on average for ten months, then a new customer will, on average, bring in $500 over the time they are a customer! Average spend is easy to work out; it’s revenue divided by customers. The problem comes when we realise that we don’t know exactly how long a customer will stay with us. How can we figure out the average lifetime of a customer, if we only have six months’ worth of data? The answer lies in the fact that: Average Lifetime of a Customer = 1 / Churn Rate The churn rate is the percentage of customers that cancel in a month. If half of your customers cancel each month, then your average customer lifetime is two months. The problem we faced was that we didn’t have enough data to make an estimate of one month’s cancellations reliable (because barely anybody cancels)! To deal with this data problem, we can take data from the last three months instead. This means we have more data to play with. We can still use the equation above, we just need to multiply the final result by three (as we worked out how many three month periods customers stay for, and we want our answer to be in months). Now these estimates are likely to be fairly unreliable; when there’s not a lot of data it pays to be cautious with inference. That said, the numbers we have look fairly consistent, and it’s super easy to revise our estimates when new data comes in. At the very least, these numbers give us a vague idea of whether a subscription business is viable. As far as Cloud Services goes, the business looks very viable indeed, and the low cancellation rates are much more than just data points in LTV equations; they show that the product is working out great for our customers, which is exactly what we’re looking for!

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  • Parsing Lisp S-Expressions with known schema in C#

    - by Drew Noakes
    I'm working with a service that provides data as a Lisp-like S-Expression string. This data is arriving thick and fast, and I want to churn through it as quickly as possible, ideally directly on the byte stream (it's only single-byte characters) without any backtracking. These strings can be quite lengthy and I don't want the GC churn of allocating a string for the whole message. My current implementation uses CoCo/R with a grammar, but it has a few problems. Due to the backtracking, it assigns the whole stream to a string. It's also a bit fiddly for users of my code to change if they have to. I'd rather have a pure C# solution. CoCo/R also does not allow for the reuse of parser/scanner objects, so I have to recreate them for each message. Conceptually the data stream can be thought of as a sequence of S-Expressions: (item 1 apple)(item 2 banana)(item 3 chainsaw) Parsing this sequence would create three objects. The type of each object can be determined by the first value in the list, in the above case "item". The schema/grammar of the incoming stream is well known. Before I start coding I'd like to know if there are libraries out there that do this already. I'm sure I'm not the first person to have this problem.

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  • Understanding the value of Customer Experience & Loyalty for the Telecommunications Industry

    - by raul.goycoolea
    Worried by economic woes and market forces, especially in mature markets, communications service providers (CSPs) increasingly focus on improving customer experience. In fact, it seems difficult to find a major message by a C-level executive in the developed world that does not include something on "meeting and exceeding customers' needs". Frequently in customer satisfaction studies by prominent firms, CSPs fall short of the leadership demonstrated by other industries that take customer-centric approaches to their bottom-line strategies. Consider the following:Despite the continued impact of global economic crisis, in July 2010, Apple Computer posted record revenue and net quarterly profit. Those who attribute the results primarily to the iPhone 4 launch should note that Apple also shipped around 30% more Macintosh computers than the same period the previous year. Even sales of the iPod line increased by 8% in a highly commoditized, shrinking media player market. Finally, Apple began selling iPads during the quarter, with total sales of more than 3 million units. What does Apple have that the others lack? Well, some great products (and services) to be sure, but it also excels at customer service and support, marketing, and distribution, and has one of the strongest brands globally. Its products are useful, simple to use, easy to acquire and augment, high quality, and considered very cool. They also evoke such an emotional response from many of Apple's customers, which they turn up their noses at competitive products.In other words, Apple appears to have mastered virtually every aspect of customer experience and the resultant loyalty of its customer base - even in difficult financial times. Through that unwavering customer focus, Apple continues to drive its revenues and profits to new heights. Other customer loyalty leaders like Wal-Mart, Google, Toyota and Honda are also doing well by focusing on customer experience as an essential driver of profitability. Service providers should note this performance and ask themselves how they might leverage the same principles to increase their own profitability. After all, that is what customer experience and loyalty are all about: profitability.To successfully manage all the critical touch points of customer experience, CSPs must shun the one-size-fits-all approach. They can no longer afford to view customer service fundamentally as an act of altruism - which mentality dates back to the industry's civil service days, when CSPs were typically government organizations that were critical to economic development and public safety.As regulators and public officials have pushed, and continue to push, service providers to new heights of reliability - using incentives and punishments - most CSPs already have some of the fundamental building blocks of customer service in place. Yet despite that history and experience, service providers still lag other industries in providing what is seen as good customer service.As we observed in the TMF's 2009 Insights Research report, Customer Experience Management: Driving Loyalty & Profitability there has been resurgence in interest by CSPs. More and more of them have stated ambitions to catch up other industries, and they are realizing that good customer service is a powerful strategy for increasing business performance and profitability, not an act of good will.CSPs are recognizing the connection between customer experience and profitability, as demonstrated in many studies. For example, according to research by Bain & Company, a 5 percent improvement in customer retention rates can yield as much as a 75 percent increase in profits for companies across a range of industries.After decades of customer experience strategy formulation, Bain partner and business author, Frederick Reichheld, considers "would you recommend us to a friend?" as the ultimate question for a customer. How many times have you or your friends recommended an iPod, iPhone or a Mac? What do your children recommend to their peers? Their peers to them?There are certain steps service providers have to take to create more personalized relationships with their customers, as well as reduce churn and increase profitability, all while becoming leaner and more agile. First, they have to define customer experience, we define it as the result of the sum of observations, perceptions, thoughts and feelings arising from interactions and relationships between customers and their service provider(s). Virtually every customer touch point - whether directly or indirectly linked to service providers and their partners - contributes to customer perception, satisfaction, loyalty, and ultimately profitability. Gaining leadership in customer experience and satisfaction will not be a simple task, as it is affected by virtually every customer-facing aspect of the service provider, and in turn impacts the service provider deeply - especially on the all-important bottom line. The scope of issues affecting customer experience is complex and dynamic.With new services, devices and applications extending the basis of customer experience to domains beyond the direct control of the service provider, it is likely to increase in complexity and dynamism.Customer loyalty = increased profitsAs stated earlier, customer experience programs are not fundamentally altruistic exercises, but a strategic means of improving competitiveness and profitability in the short and long term. Loyalty is essential to deriving long term profits from customers.Some of the earliest loyalty programs date back to the 1930s, when packaged goods companies offered embedded coupons for rewards to buyers, and eventually retail chains began offering reward programs to frequent shoppers. These programs continued for decades but were leapfrogged in the 1980s by more aggressive programs from the airlines.This movement was led by American Airlines, which launched the first full-scale loyalty marketing program of the modern era with the AAdvantage frequent flyer scheme. It was the first to reward frequent fliers with notional air miles that could be accumulated and later redeemed for free travel. Figure 1: Opportunities example of Customer loyalty driven profitOther airlines and travel providers were quick to grasp the incredible value of providing customers with an incentive to use their company exclusively. Within a few years, dozens of travel industry companies launched similar initiatives and now loyalty programs are achieving near-ubiquity in many service industries, especially those in which it is difficult to differentiate offerings by product attributes.The belief is that increased profitability will result from customer retention efforts because:•    The cost of acquisition occurs only at the beginning of a relationship: the longer the relationship, the lower the amortized cost;•    Account maintenance costs decline as a percentage of total costs, or as a percentage of revenue, over the lifetime of the relationship;•    Long term customers tend to be less inclined to switch and less price sensitive which can result in stable unit sales volume and increases in dollar-sales volume;•    Long term customers may initiate word-of-mouth promotions and referrals, which cost the company nothing and arguably are the most effective form of advertising;•    Long-term customers are more likely to buy ancillary products and higher margin supplemental products;•    Long term customers tend to be satisfied with their relationship with the company and are less likely to switch to competitors, making market entry or competitors gaining market share difficult;•    Regular customers tend to be less expensive to service, as they are familiar with the processes involved, require less 'education', and are consistent in their order placement;•    Increased customer retention and loyalty makes the employees' jobs easier and more satisfying. In turn, happy employees feed back into higher customer satisfaction in a virtuous circle. Figure 2: The virtuous circle of customer loyaltyFigure 2 represents a high-level example of a virtuous cycle driven by customer satisfaction and loyalty, depicting how superiority in product and service offerings, as well as strong customer support by competent employees, lead to higher sales and ultimately profitability. As stated above, this is not a new concept, but succeeding with it is difficult. It has eluded many a company driven to achieve profitability goals. Of course, for this circle to be virtuous, the customer relationship(s) must be profitable.Trying to maintain the loyalty of unprofitable customers is not a viable business strategy. It is, therefore, important that marketers can assess the profitability of each customer (or customer segment), and either improve or terminate relationships that are not profitable. This means each customer's 'relationship costs' must be understood and compared to their 'relationship revenue'. Customer lifetime value (CLV) is the most commonly used metric here, as it is generally accepted as a representation of exactly how much each customer is worth in monetary terms, and therefore a determinant of exactly how much a service provider should be willing to spend to acquire or retain that customer.CLV models make several simplifying assumptions and often involve the following inputs:•    Churn rate represents the percentage of customers who end their relationship with a company in a given period;•    Retention rate is calculated by subtracting the churn rate percentage from 100;•    Period/horizon equates to the units of time into which a customer relationship can be divided for analysis. A year is the most commonly used period for this purpose. Customer lifetime value is a multi-period calculation, often projecting three to seven years into the future. In practice, analysis beyond this point is viewed as too speculative to be reliable. The model horizon is the number of periods used in the calculation;•    Periodic revenue is the amount of revenue collected from a customer in a given period (though this is often extended across multiple periods into the future to understand lifetime value), such as usage revenue, revenues anticipated from cross and upselling, and often some weighting for referrals by a loyal customer to others; •    Retention cost describes the amount of money the service provider must spend, in a given period, to retain an existing customer. Again, this is often forecast across multiple periods. Retention costs include customer support, billing, promotional incentives and so on;•    Discount rate means the cost of capital used to discount future revenue from a customer. Discounting is an advanced method used in more sophisticated CLV calculations;•    Profit margin is the projected profit as a percentage of revenue for the period. This may be reflected as a percentage of gross or net profit. Again, this is generally projected across the model horizon to understand lifetime value.A strong focus on managing these inputs can help service providers realize stronger customer relationships and profits, but there are some obstacles to overcome in achieving accurate calculations of CLV, such as the complexity of allocating costs across the customer base. There are many costs that serve all customers which must be properly allocated across the base, and often a simple proportional allocation across the whole base or a segment may not accurately reflect the true cost of serving that customer;  This is made worse by the fragmentation of customer information, which is likely to be across a variety of product or operations groups, and may be difficult to aggregate due to different representations.In addition, there is the complexity of account relationships and structures to take into consideration. Complex account structures may not be understood or properly represented. For example, a profitable customer may have a separate account for a second home or another family member, which may appear to be unprofitable. If the service provider cannot relate the two accounts, CLV is not properly represented and any resultant cancellation of the apparently unprofitable account may result in the customer churning from the profitable one.In summary, if service providers are to realize strong customer relationships and their attendant profits, there must be a very strong focus on data management. This needs to be coupled with analytics that help business managers and those who work in customer-facing functions offer highly personalized solutions to customers, while maintaining profitability for the service provider. It's clear that acquiring new customers is expensive. Advertising costs, campaign management expenses, promotional service pricing and discounting, and equipment subsidies make a serious dent in a new customer's profitability. That is especially true given the rising subsidies for Smartphone users, which service providers hope will result in greater profits from profits from data services profitability in future.  The situation is made worse by falling prices and greater competition in mature markets.Customer acquisition through industry consolidation isn't cheap either. A North American service provider spent about $2,000 per subscriber in its acquisition of a smaller company earlier this year. While this has allowed it to leapfrog to become the largest mobile service provider in the country, it required a total investment of more than $28 billion (including assumption of the acquiree's debt).While many operating cost synergies clearly made this deal more attractive to the acquiring company, this is certainly an expensive way to acquire customers: the cost per subscriber in this case is not out of line with the prices others have paid for acquisitions.While growth by acquisition certainly increases overall revenues, it often creates tremendous challenges for profitability. Organic growth through increased customer loyalty and retention is a more effective driver of profit, as well as a stronger predictor of future profitability. Service providers, especially those in mature markets, are increasingly recognizing this and taking steps toward a creating a more personalized, flexible and satisfying experience for their customers.In summary, the clearest path to profitability for companies in virtually all industries is through customer retention and maximization of lifetime value. Service providers would do well to recognize this and focus attention on profitable customer relationships.

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  • Oracle Communications Data Model

    - by jean-pierre.dijcks
    I've mentioned OCDM in previous posts but found the following (see end of the post) podcast on the topic and figured it is worthwhile to spread the news some more. ORetailDM and OCommunicationsDM are the two data models currently available from Oracle. Both are intended to capture: Business best practices and industry knowledge Pre-built advanced analytics intended to predict future events before they happen (like the Churn model shown below) Oracle technology best practices to ensure optimal performance of the model All of this typically comes with a reduced time to implementation, or as the marketing slogan goes, reduced time to value. Here are the links: Podcast on OCDM OTN pages for OCDM and ORDM

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  • What to do if you're burnt out?

    - by rsteckly
    Hi, I'm starting to get really frustrated with ASP.NET. It seems as if much of my time is spent learning abstractions over problems, then having to kick into overdrive when those abstractions (surprise!) have unexpected behavior. It seems as if I spend so much time just fixing those issues because they usually are UI related and therefore require integration testing that I spend very little time programming any kind of meaningful logic. I don't know if it is ASP or if it is programming. I just feel as if I'm getting paid, doing the work but really wasting time. On the other hand, I have fantasies about console programs and actually using algorithms. What is wrong with me? Why can't I force myself to churn through this ASP stuff more?

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  • 2D Tile-Based Concept Art App

    - by ashes999
    I'm making a bunch of 2D games (now and in the near future) that use a 2D, RPG-like interface. I would like to be able to quickly paint tiles down and drop character sprites to create concept art. Sure, I could do it in GIMP or Photoshop. But that would require manually adding each tile, layering on more tiles, cutting and pasting particular character sprites, etc. and I really don't need that level of granularity; I need a quick and fast way to churn out concept art. Is there a tool that I can use for this? Perhaps some sort of 2D tile editor which lets me draw sprites and tiles given that I can provide the graphics files.

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  • How can I delay dropbox from starting, but not disable it?

    - by jgbelacqua
    When I log into my user account on Ubuntu 10.10, there is a unsatisfying delay before my system becomes usable. Even launching a terminal, I have to wait a few seconds before the bash prompt appears. During this start-up period, the top process seems to be dropbox. I'm not sure what it's doing exactly (functionality is still fine as far as I can see), but I do know it really doesn't need to be doing it while I'm waiting for desktop to appear. (This is the standard Ubuntu with Gnome desktop, by the way.) What I would like to do is to be able to have a static or even dependency-based delay for dropbox to start. It would be nice if it waited for, e.g., 10 minutes, or for my browser tabs to load and a typing pause. Then it could churn away on file status or cache-chewing, and I would be happy. Is there a way to do this? Thanks!

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  • Oracle VM Virtualbox 4.0 released !

    - by wim.coekaerts
    Another great day for the Virtualbox development team. As is custom, they churn out new features and enhancements at a record pace. You can find the changelog here and you can download your version of 4.0 here. Have at it. A bunch of changes, visually a new management console, a new method to install with a base install and the extention pack (for the add-on drivers and extra features), a number of bugfixes, multi-monitor support for Oracle Solaris and Linux, it's a long list. A great product with a great user base. Check out this survey!

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  • Downgrading Mercurial in MacPorts

    - by $utils.escapeXML($entry.author)
    Another Mercurial release, another broken extension. Mercurial 2.3 breaks hgforest ... once more. Of course, with open source, the notion of backwards compatibility is sometimesoften left as an exercise for the curious readers of said source code, so until someone gets around to fix up hgforest ... once more, to keep up with Mercurial's churn, one way to get hgforest working again is to downgrade to Mercurial 2.2.3, for example. In MacPorts, assuming you have installed Mercurial 2.2.3 before, and it was updated to the broken Mercurial 2.3 version, it's pretty easy to get back to a working state: sudo port deactivate [email protected]_1sudo port activate [email protected]_0

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  • As a programmer, how much time do you spend churning?

    - by Chinnery
    I recently went through a period of frustration, "churning" as I tried to set up my environment to work effectively on a task. By the time I broke through and started to make actual progress, I felt tired and kind of angry. (I'll admit: in this case, it took me several days of banging my head and ultimately starting from scratch to finally get around the problems.) This experience made me wonder: When a roadblock happens to other programmers, how long do they churn before finally becoming productive and beginning what feels like actual work?

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  • TFS, G.I. Joe and Under-doing

    If I were to rank the most consistently irritating parts of my work day, using TFS would come in first by a wide margin. Even repeated network outages this week seem like a pleasant reprieve from this monolithic beast. This is not a reflexive anti-Microsoft feeling, that attitude just wouldnt work for a consultant who does .NET development. It is also not an utter dismissal of TFS as worthless; Ive seen people use it effectively on several projects. So why? Ill start with a laundry list of shortcomings. An out of the box UI for work items that is insultingly bad, a source control system that is confoundingly fragile when handling merges, folder renames and long file names, the arcane XML wizardry necessary to customize a template and a build system that adds an extra layer of oddness on top of msbuild. Im sure my legion of readers will soon point out to me how I can work around all these issues, how this is fixed in TFS 2010 or with this add-in, and how once you have everything set up, youre fine. And theyd be right, any one of these problems could be worked around. If not dirty laundry, what else? I thought about it for a while, and came to the conclusion that TFS is so irritating to me because it represents a vision of software development that I find unappealing. To expand upon this, lets start with some wisdom from those great PSAs at the end of the G.I. Joe cartoons of the 80s: Now you know, and knowing is half the battle. In software development, Id go further and say knowing is more than half the battle. Understanding the dimensions of the problem you are trying to solve, the needs of the users, the value that your software can provide are more than half the battle. Implementation of this understanding is not easy, but it is not even possible without this knowledge. Assuming we have a fixed amount of time and mental energy for any project, why does this spell trouble for TFS? If you think about what TFS is doing, its offering you a huge array of options to track the day to day implementation of your project. From tasks, to code churn, to test coverage. All valuable metrics, but only in exchange for valuable time to get it all working. In addition, when you have a shiny toy like TFS, the temptation is to feel obligated to use it. So the push from TFS is to encourage a project manager and team to focus on process and metrics around process. You can get great visibility, and graphs to show your project stakeholders, but none of that is important if you are not implementing the right product. Not just unimportant, these activities can be harmful as they drain your time and sap your creativity away from the rest of the project. To be more concrete, lets suppose your organization has invested the time to create a template for your projects and trained people in how to use it, so there is no longer a big investment of time for each project to get up and running. First, Id challenge if that template could be specific enough to be full featured and still applicable for any project. Second, the very existence of this template would be a indication to a project manager that the success of their project was somehow directly related to fitting management of that project into this format. Again, while the capabilities are wonderful, the mirage is there; just get everything into TFS and your project will run smoothly. Ill close the loop on this first topic by proposing a thought experiment. Think of the projects youve worked on. How many times have you been chagrined to discover youve implemented the wrong feature, misunderstood how a feature should work or just plain spent too much time on a screen that nobody uses? That sounds like a really worthwhile area to invest time in improving. How about going back to these projects and thinking about how many times you wished you had optimized the state change flow of your tasks or been embarrassed to not have a code churn report linked back to the latest changeset? With thanks to the Real American Heroes, Ill move on to a more current influence, that of the developers at 37signals, and their philosophy towards software development. This philosophy, fully detailed in the books Getting Real and Rework, is a vision of software that under does the competition. This is software that is deliberately limited in functionality in order to concentrate fully on making sure ever feature that is there is awesome and needed. Why is this relevant? Well, in one of those fun seeming paradoxes in life, constraints can be a spark for creativity. Think Twitter, the small screen of an iPhone, the limitations of HTML for applications, the low memory limits of older or embedded system. As long as there is some freedom within those constraints, amazing things emerge. For project management, some of the most respected people in the industry recommend using just index cards, pens and tape. They argue that with change the constant in software development, your process should be as limited (yet rigorous) as possible. Looking at TFS, this is not a system designed to under do anybody. It is a big jumble of components and options, with every feature you could think of. Predictably this means many basic functions are hard to use. For task management, many people just use an Excel spreadsheet linked up to TFS. Not a stirring endorsement of the tooling there. TFS as a whole would be far more appealing to me if there was less of it, but better. Id cut 50% of the features to make the other half really amaze and inspire me. And thats really the heart of the matter. TFS has great promise and I want to believe it can work better. But ultimately it focuses your attention on a lot of stuff that doesnt really matter and then clamps down your creativity in a mess of forms and dialogs obscuring what does.   --- Relevant Links --- All those great G.I. Joe PSAs are on YouTube, including lots of mashed up versions. A simple Google search will get you on the right track.Did you know that DotNetSlackers also publishes .net articles written by top known .net Authors? We already have over 80 articles in several categories including Silverlight. Take a look: here.

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  • tricks for speeding up tar while tarring up a huge directory of little files?

    - by Trevor Harrison
    I'm trying to tar up a directory that has about 3M tiny files in it. Tar is chugging along, but I'm thinking its going to take longer than I can wait. I'm wondering if telling tar to not store metadata (owner, group, perms) would reduce the churn on reading and re-reading this huge directory and maybe speed things up, and if there is a tar switch that does this. My initial perusal of the man page only gets me something like --no-xattrs, which looks like a start, but I was hoping someone had some specific knowledge.

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  • How Social Is Your Contact Center?

    - by Charles Knapp
    More than 75% of consumers have complained on a social site after a poor customer experience. Yet, 70% of companies have little understanding of the social media conversations about their brand. To deliver upon your brand promise, retain customers, and increase their lifetime value, you must deliver great customer experiences across social, mobile, phone, and chat channels. Siloed channels produce poor customer experiences. Social channels must integrate with the people, processes, technology, and traditional channels used to satisfy customers. The more effective a company’s social marketing, the greater the demand for effective social service. However, service is not a job for social marketers. It is a job for service specialists, focused on KPIs such as response time, first contact resolution, satisfaction, churn, retention, and customer lifetime value. Most social-enabled contact centers are at the early adopter stage, attempting to “bolt on” social media as a side process. Many are experiencing inconsistent customer experiences, higher costs, and negligible return on investments. Service leaders should consider carefully how to integrate social channels with their current customer service and support people, processes, technology, and channels. Here is one company realizing success: the pre-integrated Oracle RightNow Social Experience “empowers our contact center operations by enabling our agents to join customer conversations that are happening on social sites like Twitter and Facebook and integrate those conversations into our overall multichannel customer engagement processes.” — Lisa Larson, Drugstore.com

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  • TFS Shipping Cadence

    - by Tarun Arora
    Brian Harry has formally announced a change to the TFS shipping cadence from the traditional 2-3 years to production cycle to a more agile and refreshing minimum once in a 3 weeks cycle! The change didn’t happen over night, it was a gradual process which was greatly influenced by moving TFS to the cloud. The thinking started with trying to figure out what the team wanted.  Like people often do, the team started with what they knew and tried to evolve from there.  The team spent a few months thinking through “What if we do major releases every year and minor releases every 6 months?”,  “Major releases every 6 months, patches once a month?”, “What if we do quarterly releases – can we get the release cycle going that fast?”, etc.  The team also spent time debating what constitutes a major release VS a minor release. How much churn are customers willing to tolerate?  The team finally concluded… “When a change this big is necessary – forget where you are and just ask where you want to be and then ask what it would take to get there.” Going forward you will see, Team Foundation Service updates every 3 weeks Visual Studio Client updates quarterly (Limited to VS 2012 for now) Team Foundation Server updates more frequent than every 2 years but details still being worked out.  The team will definitely deliver one this fall. Refer to the complete blog post from Brian Harry here.

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  • How to explain my 5 burnt-out years off to a new employer?

    - by user17332
    Five years ago, I lost my ability to concentrate long-term, and therefore ability to code with professional efficiency. I know why it happened, I understood how it happened, and on top of being able to re-create my calm and thus relaxed focus, I overcame the original (rooted in childhood) reason why my mind tilted on the overall situation back then; My understanding isn't rooted in words that a psychologist told me, I actually grokked them first-hand. I'm pretty much confident to be able to churn out productivity, possibly even more so than pre-burnout. I also never lost my interest in code nor did I stray from trying to get my abilities back; I kept my knowledge up to date (I could always relatively painlessly learn things coding-related, just not apply them) and thus can say that I'm a better developer than before, even if my average LOC-count over those years is abysmally low. On the other hand, now I have a biography that includes more time on the dole than in a job. What would convince you, as an employer, to give my application a chance? I don't believe I should just keep the whole topic out of it.

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  • Oracle Introduces Oracle Communications Data Model to Provide Actionable Insight for Communications

    - by kimberly.billings
    To help communications service providers (CSPs) manage and analyze rapidly growing data volumes cost effectively, Oracle recently introduced the Oracle Communications Data Model (OCDM). With the OCDM, CSPs can achieve rapid time to value by quickly implementing a standards-based enterprise data warehouse that features communications industry-specific reporting, analytics and data mining. The combination of the OCDM, Oracle Exadata and the Oracle Business Intelligence (BI) Foundation represents the most comprehensive data warehouse and BI solution for the communications industry. Hong Kong Broadband Network, the fastest growing and second largest broadband service provider in Hong Kong, enhanced its data warehouse using Oracle Communications Data Model. It went live with OCDM within three months, and has increased its subscriber base by 37 percent in six months and reduced customer churn to less than one percent. Read more about HKBN's use of OCDM. Read more about OCDM var gaJsHost = (("https:" == document.location.protocol) ? "https://ssl." : "http://www."); document.write(unescape("%3Cscript src='" + gaJsHost + "google-analytics.com/ga.js' type='text/javascript'%3E%3C/script%3E")); try { var pageTracker = _gat._getTracker("UA-13185312-1"); pageTracker._trackPageview(); } catch(err) {}

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  • Kipróbálható az ingyenes új Oracle Data Miner 11gR2 grafikus workflow-val

    - by Fekete Zoltán
    Oracle Data Mining technológiai információs oldal. Oracle Data Miner 11g Release 2 - Early Adopter oldal. Megjelent, letöltheto és kipróbálható az Oracle Data Mining, az Oracle adatbányászat új grafikus felülete, az Oracle Data Miner 11gR2. Az Oracle Data Minerhez egyszeruen az SQL Developer-t kell letöltenünk, mivel az adatbányászati felület abból indítható. Az Oracle Data Mining az Oracle adatbáziskezelobe ágyazott adatbányászati motor, ami az Oracle Database Enterprise Edition opciója. Az adatbányászat az adattárházak elemzésének kifinomult eszköze és folyamata. Az Oracle Data Mining in-database-mining elonyeit felvonultatja: - nincs felesleges adatmozgatás, a teljes adatbányászati folyamatban az adatbázisban maradnak az adatok - az adatbányászati modellek is az Oracle adatbázisban vannak - az adatbányászati eredmények, cluster adatok, döntések, valószínuségek, stb. szintén az adatbázisban keletkeznek, és ott közvetlenül elemezhetoek Az új ingyenes Data Miner felület "hatalmas gazdagodáson" ment keresztül az elozo verzióhoz képest. - grafikus adatbányászati workflow szerkesztés és futtatás jelent meg! - továbbra is ingyenes - kibovült a felület - új elemzési lehetoségekkel bovült - az SQL Developer 3.0 felületrol indítható, ez megkönnyíti az adatbányászati funkciók meghívását az adatbázisból, ha épp nem a grafikus felületetet szeretnénk erre használni Az ingyenes Data Miner felület az Oracle SQL Developer kiterjesztéseként érheto el, így az elemzok közvetlenül dolgozhatnak az adatokkal az adatbázisban és a Data Miner grafikus felülettel is, építhetnek és kiértékelhetnek, futtathatnak modelleket, predikciókat tehetnek és elemezhetnek, támogatást kapva az adatbányászati módszertan megvalósítására. A korábbi Oracle Data Miner felület a Data Miner Classic néven fut és továbbra is letöltheto az OTN-rol. Az új Data Miner GUI-ból egy képernyokép: Milyen feladatokra ad megoldási lehetoséget az Oracle Data Mining: - ügyfél viselkedés megjövendölése, prediktálása - a "legjobb" ügyfelek eredményes megcélzása - ügyfél megtartás, elvándorlás kezelés (churn) - ügyfél szegmensek, klaszterek, profilok keresése és vizsgálata - anomáliák, visszaélések felderítése - stb.

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  • A key principle of Scrum...

    - by AndyScott
    "A key principle of Scrum is its recognition that during a project the customers can change their minds about what they want and need (often called requirements churn), and that unpredicted challenges cannot be easily addressed in a traditional predictive or planned manner. As such, Scrum adopts an empirical approach—accepting that the problem cannot be fully understood or defined, focusing instead on maximizing the team’s ability to deliver quickly and respond to emerging requirements." I have been working in a SCRUM environment, with 4-6 week cycles, for about 6 months now and have been very pleased with the impact that it has had on my life (regular work hours, seeing my family, etc).  But was looking up the criteria for a 'Certified Scrum Master' and came across the SCRUM definition on Wikipedia, and started reading the actual definition.  My first thought was "hey, this development methodology actually allows you to deal with what happens in the real world (i.e. customers changing requirements); but is this "selling out" on solid requirements? I understand that this works in the environment that I am currently working in, where there are deep pockets paying the bills, and also making the descisions on what requirements to change / impliment; but is this a recepie for success in smaller or simply more budget concious environments?  Having the ability to be completely flexible when the client wants the product changed.   The more I think about it, the more I feel that SCRUM development may be better suited for an environment where a team is taking over a project from another team (bringing some outside development in-house or something of that ilk), as opposed to ground up development. What do you think?

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  • Programming During a Crisis

    - by Duracell
    Hello, I'm having difficulty turning this into a proper question, but here goes... Some of you may have heard about the flooding happening in Queensland, Australia. Well, I'm in the inner suburbs of Brisbane right now; the river has been slowly creeping toward my house since Tuesday. When I left for work this morning it was twenty meters down the road when it is normally kilometers away. Within hours of the distater striking, the government already had some pretty good web applications available for people to get information about what was happening and where the flood was predicted to rise. They also set up a database for people to search for the whereabouts of relatives or could register their location for others to see. Has anyone been involved in the development of these kinds of projects before? It's interesting that they could churn out this software in what appeared to be less than a day when the average development house could take weeks at best. In what ways did it differ from a 'normal' project? Any other thoughts?

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  • Background search for changes in TFS source control

    - by qntmfred
    SourceGear Vault's client app has the ability to background search for changes. This is very useful because at any time I can take a quick peek and see what changes my team members have checked in and that I need to get latest on. This is also helpful for previewing any merges that might be necessary. And on a day to day basis, it helps me get a sense of what parts of the codebase are seeing the most churn. Is there a way to get this same functionality with Team Foundation Server, either with native features or a plugin? I know there is a Compare feature, but it takes way too long to be useful. Unless it could periodically refresh itself like Vault does, but I haven't found a way to do that. Anything new with Visual Studio 2010?

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