Merck Serono Gains Deep Understanding of Product Portfolio Value-Drivers, Risks, and Sales Expectations Through Forecasting Solution
- by Melissa Centurio Lopes
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Merck Serono S.A. is the biopharmaceutical division of
Merck KGaA. It offers leading brands in 150 countries to help patients with
cancer, multiple sclerosis, infertility, endocrine and metabolic disorders, as
well as cardiovascular diseases.
Challenges:
Establish a better decision-making
framework for its complex, development portfolio of pharmaceutical
products, where single-point estimates or expected averages of portfolio
values, portfolio risks, and sales forecasts are insufficient and can be
misleading
Enable the company to be aware at all
times of the range of possible outcomes of technical and market risks and
uncertainties, such as the technical uncertainty of whether a product will
produce the desired clinical outcomes, or the market-related uncertainty
of whether a product will be outperformed by its competitors
Solutions
to Overcome the Challenges:
Used Oracle Crystal Ball to devise a
Monte-Carlo-based approach to better analyze and define the values and
risks of the company’s development portfolio, laying the groundwork for
optimized decision-making
Enabled a better understanding of the
range of potential values and risks to improve portfolio planning
Enabled detailed analysis of the
likelihood of favorable or unfavorable outcomes, such as the likelihood of
whether Merck Serono can meet its sales targets planned for the next ten
years with its existing product portfolio
Gained the ability to take into account
correlative risks, synergies and project interactions, enabling Merck
Serono to better forecast what the company may achieve—for example, that
there is a 70% probability of a particular sales target being met
Established Monte-Carlo-based analysis
using Oracle Crystal Ball as a useful element in decision-making at the
board level, as the approach provides a better analysis of values and
risks associated with the company’s product portfolio
“Oracle Crystal Ball enables us to make Monte
Carlo simulations of the potential value and sales of our development
portfolio. It is a very powerful tool for gaining a thorough understanding and
improved awareness of value drivers, uncertainties, and risks, along with
associated probabilities.” – Riccardo Lampariello, Associate Director, Merck
Serono S.A
Why Oracle
“We chose Oracle Crystal Ball to enable us to perform
Monte Carlo analysis, which gives us a deeper understanding and improved
awareness of the value drivers, uncertainties and risks of our portfolio of
development projects,” said Kimber Hardy, head of valuation and analysis, Merck
Serono S.A.
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Click here to read the full version of the customer success
story
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