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  • New Communications Industry Data Model with "Factory Installed" Predictive Analytics using Oracle Da

    - by charlie.berger
    Oracle Introduces Oracle Communications Data Model to Provide Actionable Insight for Communications Service Providers   We've integrated pre-installed analytical methodologies with the new Oracle Communications Data Model to deliver automated, simple, yet powerful predictive analytics solutions for customers.  Churn, sentiment analysis, identifying customer segments - all things that can be anticipated and hence, preconcieved and implemented inside an applications.  Read on for more information! TM Forum Management World, Nice, France - 18 May 2010 News Facts To help communications service providers (CSPs) manage and analyze rapidly growing data volumes cost effectively, Oracle today introduced the Oracle Communications Data Model. With the Oracle Communications Data Model, CSPs can achieve rapid time to value by quickly implementing a standards-based enterprise data warehouse that features communications industry-specific reporting, analytics and data mining. The combination of the Oracle Communications Data Model, Oracle Exadata and the Oracle Business Intelligence (BI) Foundation represents the most comprehensive data warehouse and BI solution for the communications industry. Also announced today, Hong Kong Broadband Network enhanced their data warehouse system, going live on Oracle Communications Data Model in three months. The leading provider increased its subscriber base by 37 percent in six months and reduced customer churn to less than one percent. Product Details Oracle Communications Data Model provides industry-specific schema and embedded analytics that address key areas such as customer management, marketing segmentation, product development and network health. CSPs can efficiently capture and monitor critical data and transform it into actionable information to support development and delivery of next-generation services using: More than 1,300 industry-specific measurements and key performance indicators (KPIs) such as network reliability statistics, provisioning metrics and customer churn propensity. Embedded OLAP cubes for extremely fast dimensional analysis of business information. Embedded data mining models for sophisticated trending and predictive analysis. Support for multiple lines of business, such as cable, mobile, wireline and Internet, which can be easily extended to support future requirements. With Oracle Communications Data Model, CSPs can jump start the implementation of a communications data warehouse in line with communications-industry standards including the TM Forum Information Framework (SID), formerly known as the Shared Information Model. Oracle Communications Data Model is optimized for any Oracle Database 11g platform, including Oracle Exadata, which can improve call data record query performance by 10x or more. Supporting Quotes "Oracle Communications Data Model covers a wide range of business areas that are relevant to modern communications service providers and is a comprehensive solution - with its data model and pre-packaged templates including BI dashboards, KPIs, OLAP cubes and mining models. It helps us save a great deal of time in building and implementing a customized data warehouse and enables us to leverage the advanced analytics quickly and more effectively," said Yasuki Hayashi, executive manager, NTT Comware Corporation. "Data volumes will only continue to grow as communications service providers expand next-generation networks, deploy new services and adopt new business models. They will increasingly need efficient, reliable data warehouses to capture key insights on data such as customer value, network value and churn probability. With the Oracle Communications Data Model, Oracle has demonstrated its commitment to meeting these needs by delivering data warehouse tools designed to fill communications industry-specific needs," said Elisabeth Rainge, program director, Network Software, IDC. "The TM Forum Conformance Mark provides reassurance to customers seeking standards-based, and therefore, cost-effective and flexible solutions. TM Forum is extremely pleased to work with Oracle to certify its Oracle Communications Data Model solution. Upon successful completion, this certification will represent the broadest and most complete implementation of the TM Forum Information Framework to date, with more than 130 aggregate business entities," said Keith Willetts, chairman and chief executive officer, TM Forum. Supporting Resources Oracle Communications Oracle Communications Data Model Data Sheet Oracle Communications Data Model Podcast Oracle Data Warehousing Oracle Communications on YouTube Oracle Communications on Delicious Oracle Communications on Facebook Oracle Communications on Twitter Oracle Communications on LinkedIn Oracle Database on Twitter The Data Warehouse Insider Blog

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  • Harnessing Business Events for Predictive Decision Making - part 1 / 3

    - by Sanjeev Sharma
    Businesses have long relied on data mining to elicit patterns and forecast future demand and supply trends. Improvements in computing hardware, specifically storage and compute capacity, have significantly enhanced the ability to store and analyze mountains of data in ever shrinking time-frames. Nevertheless, the reality is that data growth is outpacing storage capacity by a factor of two and computing power is still very much bounded by Moore's Law, doubling only every 18 months.Faced with this data explosion, businesses are exploring means to develop human brain-like capabilities in their decision systems (including BI and Analytics) to make sense of the data storm, in other words business events, in real-time and respond pro-actively rather than re-actively. It is more like having a little bit of the right information just a little bit before hand than having all of the right information after the fact. To appreciate this thought better let's first understand the workings of the human brain.Neuroscience research has revealed that the human brain is predictive in nature and that talent is nothing more than exceptional predictive ability. The cerebral-cortex, part of the human brain responsible for cognition, thought, language etc., comprises of five layers. The lowest layer in the hierarchy is responsible for sensory perception i.e. discrete, detail-oriented tasks whereas each of the above layers increasingly focused on assembling higher-order conceptual models. Information flows both up and down the layered memory hierarchy. This allows the conceptual mental-models to be refined over-time through experience and repetition. Secondly, and more importantly, the top-layers are able to prime the lower layers to anticipate certain events based on the existing mental-models thereby giving the brain a predictive ability. In a way the human brain develops a "memory of the future", some sort of an anticipatory thinking which let's it predict based on occurrence of events in real-time. A higher order of predictive ability stems from being able to recognize the lack of certain events. For instance, it is one thing to recognize the beats in a music track and another to detect beats that were missed, which involves a higher order predictive ability.Existing decision systems analyze historical data to identify patterns and use statistical forecasting techniques to drive planning. They are similar to the human-brain in that they employ business rules very much like mental-models to chunk and classify information. However unlike the human brain existing decision systems are unable to evolve these rules automatically (AI still best suited for highly specific tasks) and  predict the future based on real-time business events. Mistake me not,  existing decision systems remain vital to driving long-term and broader business planning. For instance, a telco will still rely on BI and Analytics software to plan promotions and optimize inventory but tap into business events enabled predictive insight to identify specifically which customers are likely to churn and engage with them pro-actively. In the next post, i will depict the technology components that enable businesses to harness real-time events and drive predictive decision making.

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  • Smooth Sailing or Rough Waters: Navigating Policy Administration Modernization

    - by helen.pitts(at)oracle.com
    Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Life insurance and annuity carriers continue to recognize the need to modernize their aging policy administration systems, but may be hesitant to move forward because of the inherent risk involved. To help carriers better prepare for what lies ahead LOMA's Resource Magazine asked Karen Furtado, partner of Strategy Meets Action, to help them chart a course in Navigating Policy Administration Selection, the cover story of this month’s issue. The industry analyst and research firm recently asked insurance carriers to name the business drivers for replacing legacy policy administration systems. The top five cited, according to Furtado, centered on: Supporting growth in current lines Improving competitive position Containing and reducing costs Supporting growth in new lines Supporting agent demands and interaction It’s no surprise that fueling growth, both now and in the future, continues to be a key driver for modernization. Why? Inflexible, hard-coded, legacy systems require customization by IT every time a change is required. This in turn impedes a carrier’s ability to be agile, constraining their ability to quickly adapt to changing regulatory requirements and evolving market demands. It also stymies their ability to quickly bring to market new products or rapidly configure changes to existing ones, and also can inhibit how carriers service customers and distribution channels. In the article, Furtado advised carriers to ensure that the policy administration system they are considering is current and modern, with an adaptable user interface and flexible service-oriented architecture. She said carriers to should ask themselves, “How much do you need flexibility and agility now and in the future? Does it support the business processes and rules that are needed for you to be able to create that adaptable environment?” Furtado went on to advise that carriers “Connect your strategy to your business and technical capabilities before you make investment choices…You want to enable your organization to transform for the future, not just automate the past.” Unlocking High Performance with Policy Administration Transformation also was the topic of a recent LOMA webcast moderated by Ron Clark, editor of LOMA's Resource Magazine. The web cast, which featured speakers from Oracle Insurance and Capgemini, focused on how insurers can competitively drive high performance by: Replacing a legacy policy administration system with a modern, flexible platform Optimizing IT and operations costs, creating consistent processes and eliminating resource redundancies Selecting the right partner with the best blend of technology, operational, and consulting capabilities to achieve market leadership Understanding the value of outsourcing closed block operations Learn more by clicking here to access this free, one-hour recorded webcast. Helen Pitts, is senior product marketing manager for Oracle Insurance's life and annuities solutions.

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  • More details on America's Cup use of Oracle Data Mining

    - by charlie.berger
    BMW Oracle Racing's America's Cup: A Victory for Database Technology BMW Oracle Racing's victory in the 33rd America's Cup yacht race in February showcased the crew's extraordinary sailing expertise. But to hear them talk, the real stars weren't actually human. "The story of this race is in the technology," says Ian Burns, design coordinator for BMW Oracle Racing. Gathering and Mining Sailing DataFrom the drag-resistant hull to its 23-story wing sail, the BMW Oracle USA trimaran is a technological marvel. But to learn to sail it well, the crew needed to review enormous amounts of reliable data every time they took the boat for a test run. Burns and his team collected performance data from 250 sensors throughout the trimaran at the rate of 10 times per second. An hour of sailing alone generates 90 million data points.BMW Oracle Racing turned to Oracle Data Mining in Oracle Database 11g to extract maximum value from the data. Burns and his team reviewed and shared raw data with crew members daily using a Web application built in Oracle Application Express (Oracle APEX). "Someone would say, 'Wouldn't it be great if we could look at some new combination of numbers?' We could quickly build an Oracle Application Express application and share the information during the same meeting," says Burns. Analyzing Wind and Other Environmental ConditionsBurns then streamed the data to the Oracle Austin Data Center, where a dedicated team tackled deeper analysis. Because the data was collected in an Oracle Database, the Data Center team could dive straight into the analytics problems without having to do any extract, transform, and load processes or data conversion. And the many advanced data mining algorithms in Oracle Data Mining allowed the analytics team to build vital performance analytics. For example, the technology team could remove masking elements such as environmental conditions to give accurate data on the best mast rotation for certain wind conditions. Without the data mining, Burns says the boat wouldn't have run as fast. "The design of the boat was important, but once you've got it designed, the whole race is down to how the guys can use it," he says. "With Oracle database technology we could compare the incremental improvements in our performance from the first day of sailing to the very last day. With data mining we could check data against the things we saw, and we could find things that weren't otherwise easily observable and findable."

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  • Enhancing Enterprise Planning and Forecasting Through Predictive Modeling

    Planning and forecasting performance in today's volatile economic environment can be challenging with traditional planning applications and manual modeling techniques. To address these challenges, leading edge companies are leveraging predictive modeling to bring statistical analysis and techniques such as Monte Carlo simulations into the mix. Sound too math-intense and complicated? Not anymore. These techniques can be applied by anyone - no prior stats experience required - whether to augment the forecasting performed by line managers or to validate those forecasts based on historical information, and to produce a broader range of scenarios to consider in decision-making.

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  • Predictive firing (in a tile-based game)

    - by n00bster
    I have a (turn-based) tile-based game, in which you can shoot at entities. You can move around with mouse and keyboard, it's all tile-based, except that bullets move "freely". I've got it all working just fine except that when I move, and the creatures shoot towards the player, they shoot towards the previous tiles.. resulting in ugly looking "miss hits" or lag. I think I need to implement some kind of predictive firing based on the bullet speed and the distance, but I don't quite know how to implement such a thing... Here's a simplified snip of my firing code. class Weapon { public void fire(int x, int y) { ... ... ... Creature owner = getOwner(); Tile targetTile = Zone.getTileAt(x, y); float dist = Vector.distance(owner.getCenterPosition(), targetTile.getCenterPosition()); Bullet b = new Bullet(); b.setPosition(owner.getCenterPosition()); // Take dist into account in the duration to get constant speed regardless of distance float duration = dist / 600f; // Moves the bullet to the centre of the target tile in the given amount of time (in seconds) b.moveTo(targetTile.getCenterPosition(), duration); // This is what I'm after // Vector v = predict the position // b.moveTo(v, duration); Zone.add(bullet); // Now the bullet gets "ticked" and moveTo will be implemented } } Movement of creatures is as simple as setting the position variable. If you need more information, just ask.

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  • Predictive vs Least Connection Load Balancing Techniques

    - by Mani
    I have a windows based desktop application that communicates via TCP to the application servers. (windows 2003). No sticky sessions between client calls. We have exactly 2 servers to load balance and we are thinking to use a F5 hardware NLB. The application is a heavy load types, doing not much bussiness logic in the services but retrieving quite a big amount of data at most of the times. May be on an average 5000 to 10000 records at all times. Used mainly for storing and retirieving data and no special processing of data or calculations running on the server side. I am favouring 'predictive' considering my services take a while at times to return data and hence tracking the feedback would yield some better routing as in predictive. I am not sure if the given data is sufficient enough to suggest some ideas but considering these, what would be some suggestions\things to consider\best between Predictive and Least Connections ? Thanks.

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  • S.M.A.R.T - Predictive Failure Count

    - by Bastien974
    I'm monitoring my IBM ServeRAID M5015 controller for RAID status with MegaCLI, I have this on one of the disk : Enclosure Device ID: 252 Slot Number: 6 Enclosure position: 0 Device Id: 14 Sequence Number: 2 Media Error Count: 32 Other Error Count: 0 Predictive Failure Count: 18 Last Predictive Failure Event Seq Number: 8119 PD Type: SAS Raw Size: 279.396 GB [0x22ecb25c Sectors] Non Coerced Size: 278.896 GB [0x22dcb25c Sectors] Coerced Size: 278.464 GB [0x22cee000 Sectors] Firmware state: Online, Spun Up SAS Address(0): 0x5000c50042c319c9 SAS Address(1): 0x0 Connected Port Number: 5(path0) Inquiry Data: IBM-ESXSST9300653SS B6336XN04HC10525B633 IBM FRU/CRU: 81Y9671 FDE Capable: Not Capable FDE Enable: Disable Secured: Unsecured Locked: Unlocked Needs EKM Attention: No Foreign State: None Device Speed: 6.0Gb/s Link Speed: 6.0Gb/s Media Type: Hard Disk Device Drive: Not Certified Drive Temperature :33 Celsius What does this mean exactly ? I can't find an exact description, is there a way to have more details ? The RAID array has the Optimal state. Media Error Count: 32 Predictive Failure Count: 18 Is there a way through the CLI to power-on the front LED so I physically know which disk I need to replace ?

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  • Extending Oracle CEP with Predictive Analytics

    - by vikram.shukla(at)oracle.com
    Introduction: OCEP is often used as a business rules engine to execute a set of business logic rules via CQL statements, and take decisions based on the outcome of those rules. There are times where configuring rules manually is sufficient because an application needs to deal with only a small and well-defined set of static rules. However, in many situations customers don't want to pre-define such rules for two reasons. First, they are dealing with events with lots of columns and manually crafting such rules for each column or a set of columns and combinations thereof is almost impossible. Second, they are content with probabilistic outcomes and do not care about 100% precision. The former is the case when a user is dealing with data with high dimensionality, the latter when an application can live with "false" positives as they can be discarded after further inspection, say by a Human Task component in a Business Process Management software. The primary goal of this blog post is to show how this can be achieved by combining OCEP with Oracle Data Mining® and leveraging the latter's rich set of algorithms and functionality to do predictive analytics in real time on streaming events. The secondary goal of this post is also to show how OCEP can be extended to invoke any arbitrary external computation in an RDBMS from within CEP. The extensible facility is known as the JDBC cartridge. The rest of the post describes the steps required to achieve this: We use the dataset available at http://blogs.oracle.com/datamining/2010/01/fraud_and_anomaly_detection_made_simple.html to showcase the capabilities. We use it to show how transaction anomalies or fraud can be detected. Building the model: Follow the self-explanatory steps described at the above URL to build the model.  It is very simple - it uses built-in Oracle Data Mining PL/SQL packages to cleanse, normalize and build the model out of the dataset.  You can also use graphical Oracle Data Miner®  to build the models. To summarize, it involves: Specifying which algorithms to use. In this case we use Support Vector Machines as we're trying to find anomalies in highly dimensional dataset.Build model on the data in the table for the algorithms specified. For this example, the table was populated in the scott/tiger schema with appropriate privileges. Configuring the Data Source: This is the first step in building CEP application using such an integration.  Our datasource looks as follows in the server config file.  It is advisable that you use the Visualizer to add it to the running server dynamically, rather than manually edit the file.    <data-source>         <name>DataMining</name>         <data-source-params>             <jndi-names>                 <element>DataMining</element>             </jndi-names>             <global-transactions-protocol>OnePhaseCommit</global-transactions-protocol>         </data-source-params>         <connection-pool-params>             <credential-mapping-enabled></credential-mapping-enabled>             <test-table-name>SQL SELECT 1 from DUAL</test-table-name>             <initial-capacity>1</initial-capacity>             <max-capacity>15</max-capacity>             <capacity-increment>1</capacity-increment>         </connection-pool-params>         <driver-params>             <use-xa-data-source-interface>true</use-xa-data-source-interface>             <driver-name>oracle.jdbc.OracleDriver</driver-name>             <url>jdbc:oracle:thin:@localhost:1522:orcl</url>             <properties>                 <element>                     <value>scott</value>                     <name>user</name>                 </element>                 <element>                     <value>{Salted-3DES}AzFE5dDbO2g=</value>                     <name>password</name>                 </element>                                 <element>                     <name>com.bea.core.datasource.serviceName</name>                     <value>oracle11.2g</value>                 </element>                 <element>                     <name>com.bea.core.datasource.serviceVersion</name>                     <value>11.2.0</value>                 </element>                 <element>                     <name>com.bea.core.datasource.serviceObjectClass</name>                     <value>java.sql.Driver</value>                 </element>             </properties>         </driver-params>     </data-source>   Designing the EPN: The EPN is very simple in this example. We briefly describe each of the components. The adapter ("DataMiningAdapter") reads data from a .csv file and sends it to the CQL processor downstream. The event payload here is same as that of the table in the database (refer to the attached project or do a "desc table-name" from a SQL*PLUS prompt). While this is for convenience in this example, it need not be the case. One can still omit fields in the streaming events, and need not match all columns in the table on which the model was built. Better yet, it does not even need to have the same name as columns in the table, as long as you alias them in the USING clause of the mining function. (Caveat: they still need to draw values from a similar universe or domain, otherwise it constitutes incorrect usage of the model). There are two things in the CQL processor ("DataMiningProc") that make scoring possible on streaming events. 1.      User defined cartridge function Please refer to the OCEP CQL reference manual to find more details about how to define such functions. We include the function below in its entirety for illustration. <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?> <jdbcctxconfig:config     xmlns:jdbcctxconfig="http://www.bea.com/ns/wlevs/config/application"     xmlns:jc="http://www.oracle.com/ns/ocep/config/jdbc">        <jc:jdbc-ctx>         <name>Oracle11gR2</name>         <data-source>DataMining</data-source>               <function name="prediction2">                                 <param name="CQLMONTH" type="char"/>                      <param name="WEEKOFMONTH" type="int"/>                      <param name="DAYOFWEEK" type="char" />                      <param name="MAKE" type="char" />                      <param name="ACCIDENTAREA"   type="char" />                      <param name="DAYOFWEEKCLAIMED"  type="char" />                      <param name="MONTHCLAIMED" type="char" />                      <param name="WEEKOFMONTHCLAIMED" type="int" />                      <param name="SEX" type="char" />                      <param name="MARITALSTATUS"   type="char" />                      <param name="AGE" type="int" />                      <param name="FAULT" type="char" />                      <param name="POLICYTYPE"   type="char" />                      <param name="VEHICLECATEGORY"  type="char" />                      <param name="VEHICLEPRICE" type="char" />                      <param name="FRAUDFOUND" type="int" />                      <param name="POLICYNUMBER" type="int" />                      <param name="REPNUMBER" type="int" />                      <param name="DEDUCTIBLE"   type="int" />                      <param name="DRIVERRATING"  type="int" />                      <param name="DAYSPOLICYACCIDENT"   type="char" />                      <param name="DAYSPOLICYCLAIM" type="char" />                      <param name="PASTNUMOFCLAIMS" type="char" />                      <param name="AGEOFVEHICLES" type="char" />                      <param name="AGEOFPOLICYHOLDER" type="char" />                      <param name="POLICEREPORTFILED" type="char" />                      <param name="WITNESSPRESNT" type="char" />                      <param name="AGENTTYPE" type="char" />                      <param name="NUMOFSUPP" type="char" />                      <param name="ADDRCHGCLAIM"   type="char" />                      <param name="NUMOFCARS" type="char" />                      <param name="CQLYEAR" type="int" />                      <param name="BASEPOLICY" type="char" />                                     <return-component-type>char</return-component-type>                                                      <sql><![CDATA[             SELECT to_char(PREDICTION_PROBABILITY(CLAIMSMODEL, '0' USING *))               AS probability             FROM (SELECT  :CQLMONTH AS MONTH,                                            :WEEKOFMONTH AS WEEKOFMONTH,                          :DAYOFWEEK AS DAYOFWEEK,                           :MAKE AS MAKE,                           :ACCIDENTAREA AS ACCIDENTAREA,                           :DAYOFWEEKCLAIMED AS DAYOFWEEKCLAIMED,                           :MONTHCLAIMED AS MONTHCLAIMED,                           :WEEKOFMONTHCLAIMED,                             :SEX AS SEX,                           :MARITALSTATUS AS MARITALSTATUS,                            :AGE AS AGE,                           :FAULT AS FAULT,                           :POLICYTYPE AS POLICYTYPE,                            :VEHICLECATEGORY AS VEHICLECATEGORY,                           :VEHICLEPRICE AS VEHICLEPRICE,                           :FRAUDFOUND AS FRAUDFOUND,                           :POLICYNUMBER AS POLICYNUMBER,                           :REPNUMBER AS REPNUMBER,                           :DEDUCTIBLE AS DEDUCTIBLE,                            :DRIVERRATING AS DRIVERRATING,                           :DAYSPOLICYACCIDENT AS DAYSPOLICYACCIDENT,                            :DAYSPOLICYCLAIM AS DAYSPOLICYCLAIM,                           :PASTNUMOFCLAIMS AS PASTNUMOFCLAIMS,                           :AGEOFVEHICLES AS AGEOFVEHICLES,                           :AGEOFPOLICYHOLDER AS AGEOFPOLICYHOLDER,                           :POLICEREPORTFILED AS POLICEREPORTFILED,                           :WITNESSPRESNT AS WITNESSPRESENT,                           :AGENTTYPE AS AGENTTYPE,                           :NUMOFSUPP AS NUMOFSUPP,                           :ADDRCHGCLAIM AS ADDRCHGCLAIM,                            :NUMOFCARS AS NUMOFCARS,                           :CQLYEAR AS YEAR,                           :BASEPOLICY AS BASEPOLICY                 FROM dual)                 ]]>         </sql>        </function>     </jc:jdbc-ctx> </jdbcctxconfig:config> 2.      Invoking the function for each event. Once this function is defined, you can invoke it from CQL as follows: <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?> <wlevs:config xmlns:wlevs="http://www.bea.com/ns/wlevs/config/application">   <processor>     <name>DataMiningProc</name>     <rules>        <query id="q1"><![CDATA[                     ISTREAM(SELECT S.CQLMONTH,                                   S.WEEKOFMONTH,                                   S.DAYOFWEEK, S.MAKE,                                   :                                         S.BASEPOLICY,                                    C.F AS probability                                                 FROM                                 StreamDataChannel [NOW] AS S,                                 TABLE(prediction2@Oracle11gR2(S.CQLMONTH,                                      S.WEEKOFMONTH,                                      S.DAYOFWEEK,                                       S.MAKE, ...,                                      S.BASEPOLICY) AS F of char) AS C)                       ]]></query>                 </rules>               </processor>           </wlevs:config>   Finally, the last stage in the EPN prints out the probability of the event being an anomaly. One can also define a threshold in CQL to filter out events that are normal, i.e., below a certain mark as defined by the analyst or designer. Sample Runs: Now let's see how this behaves when events are streamed through CEP. We use only two events for brevity, one normal and other one not. This is one of the "normal" looking events and the probability of it being anomalous is less than 60%. Event is: eventType=DataMiningOutEvent object=q1  time=2904821976256 S.CQLMONTH=Dec, S.WEEKOFMONTH=5, S.DAYOFWEEK=Wednesday, S.MAKE=Honda, S.ACCIDENTAREA=Urban, S.DAYOFWEEKCLAIMED=Tuesday, S.MONTHCLAIMED=Jan, S.WEEKOFMONTHCLAIMED=1, S.SEX=Female, S.MARITALSTATUS=Single, S.AGE=21, S.FAULT=Policy Holder, S.POLICYTYPE=Sport - Liability, S.VEHICLECATEGORY=Sport, S.VEHICLEPRICE=more than 69000, S.FRAUDFOUND=0, S.POLICYNUMBER=1, S.REPNUMBER=12, S.DEDUCTIBLE=300, S.DRIVERRATING=1, S.DAYSPOLICYACCIDENT=more than 30, S.DAYSPOLICYCLAIM=more than 30, S.PASTNUMOFCLAIMS=none, S.AGEOFVEHICLES=3 years, S.AGEOFPOLICYHOLDER=26 to 30, S.POLICEREPORTFILED=No, S.WITNESSPRESENT=No, S.AGENTTYPE=External, S.NUMOFSUPP=none, S.ADDRCHGCLAIM=1 year, S.NUMOFCARS=3 to 4, S.CQLYEAR=1994, S.BASEPOLICY=Liability, probability=.58931702982118561 isTotalOrderGuarantee=true\nAnamoly probability: .58931702982118561 However, the following event is scored as an anomaly with a very high probability of  89%. So there is likely to be something wrong with it. A close look reveals that the value of "deductible" field (10000) is not "normal". What exactly constitutes normal here?. If you run the query on the database to find ALL distinct values for the "deductible" field, it returns the following set: {300, 400, 500, 700} Event is: eventType=DataMiningOutEvent object=q1  time=2598483773496 S.CQLMONTH=Dec, S.WEEKOFMONTH=5, S.DAYOFWEEK=Wednesday, S.MAKE=Honda, S.ACCIDENTAREA=Urban, S.DAYOFWEEKCLAIMED=Tuesday, S.MONTHCLAIMED=Jan, S.WEEKOFMONTHCLAIMED=1, S.SEX=Female, S.MARITALSTATUS=Single, S.AGE=21, S.FAULT=Policy Holder, S.POLICYTYPE=Sport - Liability, S.VEHICLECATEGORY=Sport, S.VEHICLEPRICE=more than 69000, S.FRAUDFOUND=0, S.POLICYNUMBER=1, S.REPNUMBER=12, S.DEDUCTIBLE=10000, S.DRIVERRATING=1, S.DAYSPOLICYACCIDENT=more than 30, S.DAYSPOLICYCLAIM=more than 30, S.PASTNUMOFCLAIMS=none, S.AGEOFVEHICLES=3 years, S.AGEOFPOLICYHOLDER=26 to 30, S.POLICEREPORTFILED=No, S.WITNESSPRESENT=No, S.AGENTTYPE=External, S.NUMOFSUPP=none, S.ADDRCHGCLAIM=1 year, S.NUMOFCARS=3 to 4, S.CQLYEAR=1994, S.BASEPOLICY=Liability, probability=.89171554529576691 isTotalOrderGuarantee=true\nAnamoly probability: .89171554529576691 Conclusion: By way of this example, we show: real-time scoring of events as they flow through CEP leveraging Oracle Data Mining.how CEP applications can invoke complex arbitrary external computations (function shipping) in an RDBMS.

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  • Learn How to Use Oracle’s Spatial and BI Tools for Location-aware Predictive Analytics

    - by Mandy Ho
    November 29, 2-3pm EST Are you a OBIEE (Oracle Business Intelligence Enterprise Edition) user? Have Location data you'd like to incorporate into your analysis as well? This is a great webinar for you! Join us, as Oracle experts from both teams show how to perform perdictive analytics, network analytics and spatial analysis, combined together, in real world scenarios. We will include demos evaluating airline on-time performance and retail establishment performance.  Learn how to: - Gain better business insights and improve ROI with Oracle Spatial and Graph, Oracle Advanced Analytics, and Oracle Business Intelligence Enterprise Edition (OBIEE). - Streamline and remove the complexity of building applications with OBIEE’s built-in location and analytics features. - Create the statistical model, build interactive reports and dashboards including location analysis and map visualization, and incorporate network analytics for geomarketing and site scoring. - Perform location analysis and processing such as proximity, containment, geocoding, aggregation of geographic regions, and more. Speakers include Jayant Sharma, Director, Product Management, Oracle Spatial and Mapping Technologies; Jean Ihm, Principal Product Manager, Oracle Spatial and Mapping Technologies; and Abhinav Agarwal, OBIEE Product Management. Who should attend This webinar is appropriate for CIOs, business and technical managers, developers, and analysts involved in design and management of analytic applications and solutions where spatial analysis can add insight and value to business processes. Click here, or the link below to sign up today! https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/764677554

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  • Financial institutions build predictive models using Oracle R Enterprise to speed model deployment

    - by Mark Hornick
    See the Oracle press release, Financial Institutions Leverage Metadata Driven Modeling Capability Built on the Oracle R Enterprise Platform to Accelerate Model Deployment and Streamline Governance for a description where a "unified environment for analytics data management and model lifecycle management brings the power and flexibility of the open source R statistical platform, delivered via the in-database Oracle R Enterprise engine to support open standards compliance." Through its integration with Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle Financial Services Analytical Applications provides "productivity, management, and governance benefits to financial institutions, including the ability to: Centrally manage and control models in a single, enterprise model repository, allowing for consistent management and application of security and IT governance policies across enterprise assets Reuse models and rapidly integrate with applications by exposing models as services Accelerate development with seeded models and common modeling and statistical techniques available out-of-the-box Cut risk and speed model deployment by testing and tuning models with production data while working within a safe sandbox Support compliance with regulatory requirements by carrying out comprehensive stress testing, which captures the effects of adverse risk events that are not estimated by standard statistical and business models. This approach supplements the modeling process and supports compliance with the Pillar I and the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process stress testing requirements of the Basel II Accord Improve performance by deploying and running models co-resident with data. Oracle R Enterprise engines run in database, virtually eliminating the need to move data to and from client machines, thereby reducing latency and improving security"

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  • HP DL380 G5 Predictive Drive Failure on a new drive

    - by CharlieJ
    Consolidated Error Report: Controller: Smart Array P400 in slot 3 Device: Physical Drive 1I:1:1 Message: Predictive failure. We have an HP DL380 G5 server with two 72GB 15k SAS drives configured in RAID1. A couple weeks ago, the server reported a drive failure on Drive 1. We replaced the drive with a brand new HDD -- same spares number. A few days ago, the server started reporting a predictive drive failure on the new drive, in the same bay. Is it likely the new drive is bad... or more likely we have a bay failure problem? This is a production server, so any advice would be appreciated. I have another spare drive, so I can hot swap it if this is a fluke and new drive is just bad. THANKS! CharlieJ

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  • HP DL380 G5 Predictive failure of a new drive

    - by CharlieJ
    Consolidated Error Report: Controller: Smart Array P400 in slot 3 Device: Physical Drive 1I:1:1 Message: Predictive failure. We have an HP DL380 G5 server with two 72GB 15k SAS drives configured in RAID1. A couple weeks ago, the server reported a drive failure on Drive 1. We replaced the drive with a brand new HDD -- same spares number. A few days ago, the server started reporting a predictive drive failure on the new drive, in the same bay. Is it likely the new drive is bad... or more likely we have a bay failure problem? This is a production server, so any advice would be appreciated. I have another spare drive, so I can hot swap it if this is a fluke and new drive is just bad. THANKS! CharlieJ

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  • Kicking yourself because you missed the Oracle OpenWorld and Oracle Develop Call for Papers?

    - by charlie.berger
    Here's a great opportunity!If you missed the Oracle OpenWorld and Oracle Develop Call for Papers, here is another opportunity to submit a paper to present. Submit a paper and ask your colleagues, Oracle Mix community, friends and anyone else you know to vote for your session. As applications of data mining and predictive analytics are always interesting, your chances of getting accepted by votes is higher.  Note, only Oracle Mix members are allowed to vote. Voting is open from the end of May through June 20. For the most part, the top voted sessions will be selected for the program (although we may choose sessions in order to balance the content across the program). Please note that Oracle reserves the right to decline sessions that are not appropriate for the conference, such as subjects that are competitive in nature or sessions that cover outdated versions of products. Oracle OpenWorld and Oracle DevelopSuggest-a-Sessionhttps://mix.oracle.com/oow10/proposals FAQhttps://mix.oracle.com/oow10/faq

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  • Data Mining - Predictive Analysis

    - by IMHO
    We are looking at acquiring Data Mining software to primarily run predictive analysis processes. How does SQL Server Data Mining solution compares to other solutions like SPSS from IBM? Since SQL Server DM is included in SQL Server Enterprise license - what would be the justification to spend extra couple 100K to buy separate software just to do DM?

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  • multiple word Predictive/autocomplete textarea?

    - by pablo
    Hi there I'm lookin for a javascript plugin (for js/any framework) I want to create a textarea that while I type will using a supplied data array, check for predictive matches to the current word im typing and try to suggest a solution. All solutions I've found so far (for jquery) only match one word, then end... I want to write like a sentence or paragraph but have autocomplete ability. Mockup image attached.

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  • Predicting Likelihood of Click with Multiple Presentations

    - by Michel Adar
    When using predictive models to predict the likelihood of an ad or a banner to be clicked on it is common to ignore the fact that the same content may have been presented in the past to the same visitor. While the error may be small if the visitors do not often see repeated content, it may be very significant for sites where visitors come repeatedly. This is a well recognized problem that usually gets handled with presentation thresholds – do not present the same content more than 6 times. Observations and measurements of visitor behavior provide evidence that something better is needed. Observations For a specific visitor, during a single session, for a banner in a not too prominent space, the second presentation of the same content is more likely to be clicked on than the first presentation. The difference can be 30% to 100% higher likelihood for the second presentation when compared to the first. That is, for example, if the first presentation has an average click rate of 1%, the second presentation may have an average CTR of between 1.3% and 2%. After the second presentation the CTR stays more or less the same for a few more presentations. The number of presentations in this plateau seems to vary by the location of the content in the page and by the visual attraction of the content. After these few presentations the CTR starts decaying with a curve that is very well approximated by an exponential decay. For example, the 13th presentation may have 90% the likelihood of the 12th, and the 14th has 90% the likelihood of the 13th. The decay constant seems also to depend on the visibility of the content. Modeling Options Now that we know the empirical data, we can propose modeling techniques that will correctly predict the likelihood of a click. Use presentation number as an input to the predictive model Probably the most straight forward approach is to add the presentation number as an input to the predictive model. While this is certainly a simple solution, it carries with it several problems, among them: If the model learns on each case, repeated non-clicks for the same content will reinforce the belief of the model on the non-clicker disproportionately. That is, the weight of a person that does not click for 200 presentations of an offer may be the same as 100 other people that on average click on the second presentation. The effect of the presentation number is not a customer characteristic or a piece of contextual data about the interaction with the customer, but it is contextual data about the content presented. Models tend to underestimate the effect of the presentation number. For these reasons it is not advisable to use this approach when the average number of presentations of the same content to the same person is above 3, or when there are cases of having the presentation number be very large, in the tens or hundreds. Use presentation number as a partitioning attribute to the predictive model In this approach we essentially build a separate predictive model for each presentation number. This approach overcomes all of the problems in the previous approach, nevertheless, it can be applied only when the volume of data is large enough to have these very specific sub-models converge.

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  • NEW 2-Day Instructor Led Course on Oracle Data Mining Now Available!

    - by chberger
    A NEW 2-Day Instructor Led Course on Oracle Data Mining has been developed for customers and anyone wanting to learn more about data mining, predictive analytics and knowledge discovery inside the Oracle Database.  Course Objectives: Explain basic data mining concepts and describe the benefits of predictive analysis Understand primary data mining tasks, and describe the key steps of a data mining process Use the Oracle Data Miner to build,evaluate, and apply multiple data mining models Use Oracle Data Mining's predictions and insights to address many kinds of business problems, including: Predict individual behavior, Predict values, Find co-occurring events Learn how to deploy data mining results for real-time access by end-users Five reasons why you should attend this 2 day Oracle Data Mining Oracle University course. With Oracle Data Mining, a component of the Oracle Advanced Analytics Option, you will learn to gain insight and foresight to: Go beyond simple BI and dashboards about the past. This course will teach you about "data mining" and "predictive analytics", analytical techniques that can provide huge competitive advantage Take advantage of your data and investment in Oracle technology Leverage all the data in your data warehouse, customer data, service data, sales data, customer comments and other unstructured data, point of sale (POS) data, to build and deploy predictive models throughout the enterprise. Learn how to explore and understand your data and find patterns and relationships that were previously hidden Focus on solving strategic challenges to the business, for example, targeting "best customers" with the right offer, identifying product bundles, detecting anomalies and potential fraud, finding natural customer segments and gaining customer insight.

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